◆ Market Correction Risk Scorecard
Daily Edition · Updated fri sep 11 3:15pm ET
51
/ 100 · Composite Risk
LOW

27th percentile of its own history

Assesses the probability of a 10%+ S&P 500 correction over the next 6–12 months.
▲ +0 7-day ▲ +7 30-day
See how this read performed before past corrections →
Today’s Read

Composite risk reads 51 of 100 — elevated.

Market Breadth is the loudest signal at 61 (yellow).

Economic Fundamentals is the calmest at 41.

1 of 4 Burry conditions are firing; watch for the rest to align.

The Trajectory

Composite risk over time, against the calm / elevated / stressed regimes. Flags mark the days a signal flipped color.

Overlay markets ↗ indexed to 100 at window start
Steady · 0–40 Elevated · 41–69 Stressed · 70–100

From the Headlines

themes moving risk
Bridgewater investment chief says AI could wipe out humanity bearish ai MarketWatch.com - Top Stories Meta Ran Hundreds of Ads Showing AI Child Sexual Abuse, NGO Says bearish ai Bloomberg Technology Bridgewater’s Jensen Says AI Will Kill People Before It’s Curbed bearish ai Bloomberg Technology Google to Invest €13 Billion in AI Infrastructure in Finland bullish ai Bloomberg Technology AI Healthcare Startup Forus Hits $3 Billion Valuation bullish ai Bloomberg Technology

Burry Trigger

1/4 firing

The single most dangerous combination. When all four light, history rhymes.

◇ NVDA revenue decelerating
◇ Mag-4 capex rolling over
◇ Earnings & Expectations RED
◆ 10-Year yield above 4.5%

The Six Levels

faint line = composite

Each level rolls its metrics into a 0–100 sub-score (weight is its share of the composite). The faint line on each card is the overall composite, so you can see whether a level is moving with or against the market. Tap a card for the detail.

L1 YELLOW
Earnings & Expectations
45/100
▲ Worsening +15
35% weight
L2 YELLOW
Technology Concentration Risk
57/100
▼ Improving -6
25% weight
L3 YELLOW
Liquidity Conditions
54/100
▲ Worsening +2
15% weight
L4 YELLOW
Economic Fundamentals
41/100
▲ Worsening +16
10% weight
L5 YELLOW
Market Breadth
61/100
▲ Worsening +10
10% weight
L6 YELLOW
Market Sentiment Indicators
50/100
▲ Worsening +14
5% weight

What Changed

Composite 44→51 over 30 days (+7)

  • Earnings & Expectations +5
  • Economic Fundamentals +2
  • Technology Concentration Risk -2
  • Market Breadth +1
  • Market Sentiment Indicators +1
  • Liquidity Conditions +0
Signal changes · last 14 days
  1. 2026-09-11 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 11/30d
  2. 2026-09-11 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 179 pos / 70 neg
  3. 2026-09-10 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  4. 2026-09-10 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  5. 2026-09-10 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 3/7d vs 11/30d
  6. 2026-09-09 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  7. 2026-09-09 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  8. 2026-09-09 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  9. 2026-09-09 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  10. 2026-09-08 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  11. 2026-09-08 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  12. 2026-09-08 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  13. 2026-09-08 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  14. 2026-09-08 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  15. 2026-09-08 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  16. 2026-09-08 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  17. 2026-09-08 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  18. 2026-09-08 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  19. 2026-09-08 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  20. 2026-09-08 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  21. 2026-09-07 bank_credit_stress_score shifted YELLOW → GREEN 3 bank calls
  22. 2026-09-07 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  23. 2026-09-07 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 10/30d
  24. 2026-09-07 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  25. 2026-09-05 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 3/7d vs 11/30d
  26. 2026-09-04 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  27. 2026-09-04 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  28. 2026-09-04 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 11/30d
  29. 2026-09-03 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  30. 2026-09-03 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 3/7d vs 11/30d
  31. 2026-09-03 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  32. 2026-09-02 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  33. 2026-09-02 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  34. 2026-09-02 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  35. 2026-09-02 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  36. 2026-09-01 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  37. 2026-08-31 bank_consumer_health_score shifted RED → YELLOW 3 bank calls
  38. 2026-08-31 mag7_eps_estimate_90d_delta shifted RED → GREEN 7 names, 90d Δ
  39. 2026-08-31 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip