◆ Market Correction Risk Scorecard
Daily Edition · Updated tue jul 28 12:00pm ET
49
/ 100 · Composite Risk
ELEVATED
Assesses the probability of a 10%+ S&P 500 correction over the next 6–12 months.
▼ -0 7-day ▼ -0 30-day
See how this read performed before past corrections →
Today’s Read

Composite risk reads 49 of 100 — elevated.

Technology Concentration Risk is the loudest signal at 57 (yellow).

Economic Fundamentals is the calmest at 19.

1 of 4 Burry conditions are firing; watch for the rest to align.

The Trajectory

Composite risk over time, against the calm / elevated / stressed regimes. Flags mark the days a signal flipped color.

Overlay markets ↗ indexed to 100 at window start
Steady · 0–40 Elevated · 41–69 Stressed · 70–100

From the Headlines

themes moving risk
I lost my job, my emergency fund is running out and now I have to move back in with my parents. What did I do wrong? bearish layoff MarketWatch.com - Top Stories OpenAI says its AI agent broke out of testing sandbox to hack Hugging Face bearish ai Ars Technica - All content OpenAI says its AI went rogue and launched 'unprecedented' cyber-attack bearish ai BBC News Alphabet Quadruples Profit to Nearly $120 Billion, Fueled by A.I. Investments bullish ai NYT > Technology AMD and Anthropic reach $5 billion AI infrastructure deal bullish ai The Verge

Burry Trigger

1/4 firing

The single most dangerous combination. When all four light, history rhymes.

◇ NVDA revenue decelerating
◇ Mag-4 capex rolling over
◇ Earnings & Expectations RED
◆ 10-Year yield above 4.5%

The Six Levels

faint line = composite

Each level rolls its metrics into a 0–100 sub-score (weight is its share of the composite). The faint line on each card is the overall composite, so you can see whether a level is moving with or against the market. Tap a card for the detail.

L1 YELLOW
Earnings & Expectations
48/100
▲ Worsening +1
35% weight
L2 YELLOW
Technology Concentration Risk
57/100
— Flat
25% weight
L3 YELLOW
Liquidity Conditions
54/100
▲ Worsening +6
15% weight
L4 GREEN
Economic Fundamentals
19/100
▼ Improving -10
10% weight
L5 YELLOW
Market Breadth
48/100
▼ Improving -2
10% weight
L6 YELLOW
Market Sentiment Indicators
56/100
▼ Improving -2
5% weight

What Changed

Composite 49→49 over 30 days (-0)

  • Liquidity Conditions +1
  • Economic Fundamentals -1
  • Earnings & Expectations +0
  • Market Breadth -0
  • Technology Concentration Risk -0
  • Market Sentiment Indicators -0
Signal changes · last 14 days
  1. 2026-07-28 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 147 pos / 71 neg
  2. 2026-07-28 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 144 pos / 72 neg
  3. 2026-07-28 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  4. 2026-07-27 capex_to_ocf_googl shifted YELLOW → RED GOOGL TTM capex/OCF
  5. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  6. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  7. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  8. 2026-07-27 vix_term_structure shifted GREEN → YELLOW VIX9D/VIX3M
  9. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  10. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  11. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  12. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  13. 2026-07-27 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  14. 2026-07-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 141 pos / 58 neg
  15. 2026-07-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 141 pos / 57 neg
  16. 2026-07-25 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 144 pos / 59 neg
  17. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 141 pos / 57 neg
  18. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 140 pos / 57 neg
  19. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 140 pos / 56 neg
  20. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 137 pos / 56 neg
  21. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 140 pos / 56 neg
  22. 2026-07-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 143 pos / 68 neg
  23. 2026-07-23 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 141 pos / 72 neg
  24. 2026-07-23 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 141 pos / 69 neg
  25. 2026-07-22 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 137 pos / 69 neg
  26. 2026-07-22 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 147 pos / 71 neg
  27. 2026-07-22 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 142 pos / 70 neg
  28. 2026-07-21 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  29. 2026-07-20 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 138 pos / 65 neg
  30. 2026-07-20 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 136 pos / 65 neg
  31. 2026-07-20 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 135 pos / 64 neg
  32. 2026-07-17 treasury_10y shifted RED → YELLOW FRED DGS10
  33. 2026-07-16 news_recession_mention_freq shifted YELLOW → GREEN 6/1394 articles
  34. 2026-07-16 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 148 pos / 65 neg
  35. 2026-07-16 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  36. 2026-07-16 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 162 pos / 62 neg
  37. 2026-07-16 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 165 pos / 62 neg
  38. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 163 pos / 62 neg
  39. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 164 pos / 61 neg
  40. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 154 pos / 60 neg
  41. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 159 pos / 59 neg
  42. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 158 pos / 60 neg
  43. 2026-07-15 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  44. 2026-07-15 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  45. 2026-07-15 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  46. 2026-07-15 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 173 pos / 65 neg
  47. 2026-07-15 treasury_10y shifted YELLOW → RED FRED DGS10
  48. 2026-07-14 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 181 pos / 78 neg
  49. 2026-07-14 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 182 pos / 80 neg