Market Correction Risk Scorecard

Liquidity Conditions 54.4 · YELLOW

Level 3 · weight 15%

Metrics

MetricValueZStatusSource
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
10-Year TIPS yield. Real cost of capital.
2.43 % 2.43 RED FRED:DFII10
10Y Treasury Yield
10-Year Treasury constant maturity nominal yield. Higher rates compete with equities.
4.55 % 1.20 YELLOW FRED:DGS10
High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS. Credit often cracks before equities.
2.79 bps -0.88 GREEN FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
Investment-Grade Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA US Corporate OAS. Lower-frequency stress signal.
0.80 bps -0.77 GREEN FRED:BAMLC0A0CM
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
10Y minus 2Y spread. Inversion historically precedes recessions.
36.00 bps -0.53 GREEN FRED:DGS10-DGS2