Economic Fundamentals 34.3 · GREEN
Level 4 · weight 10%
Metrics
| Metric | Value | Z | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Continuing Claims
Continuing unemployment claims.
|
1728000.00 thousands | -1.93 | GREEN | FRED:CCSA |
|
Initial Claims (4wk avg)
Weekly initial unemployment claims, 4-week moving average.
|
194000.00 thousands | -1.93 | GREEN | FRED:ICSA |
|
Retail Sales YoY
Retail sales ex-food-services, year-over-year percent change.
|
6.19 % | -1.51 | GREEN | FRED:RSXFS |
|
Bank Consumer Health Score
Aggregate GPT score of consumer financial health (spending growth, deposit levels, credit card delinquency trends) from major bank earnings calls. Higher = healthier consumer.
|
0.60 score | 1.16 | YELLOW | transcripts + GPT |
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI composite index. Below 50 = contraction; historically leads recessions by 6-12 months.
|
— | — | STALE | FRED:NAPM |
|
Conference Board LEI YoY
Conference Board Leading Economic Index, year-over-year percent change. Designed to lead economic turning points. Falling = more risk.
|
1.72 percent | — | STALE | FRED:USSLIND |
|
Credit Card Delinquency Rate
Delinquency rate on credit card loans, all commercial banks. Rises before consumer-driven corrections.
|
2.85 percent | — | STALE | FRED:DRCCLACBS |